Published on May 14, 2023 at 8:30am
🔴⚪️Arsenal v Brighton🔵⚪️
Research/Write up:
Sundays clash between 2 of the leagues best footballing sides is certain to be an absolute cracker of a match and I’ve found a bet365 bet builder I really like the look of.
Arsenal are imperious at home, losing only 1 of their 17 games and that was against the juggernaut that is Manchester City. No shame in that loss. They’ve won 13, drawing the other 3, meaning we can feel safe the Arsenal double chance section of the bet is safe enough. Especially as Brighton arrive at the Emirates ready to play their 6th game in 18 days. Brighton have been forced to rotate and it has exposed their lack of depth/experience and I think this trip to the Emirates is going to be another difficult day for them. It would be a huge surprise if they went to title-chasing Arsenal and won in my opinion.
Arsenal average an eye-watering 19.4 shots per game at home this season. A reason for that is their home grown and Norwegian superstars Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard. Both men have incredible shot statistics this season. In his last 11 matches, Ødegaard has had: 3,3,4,2,1,0,3,3,12,2,3 shots. As you can see, he’s hit 2 or more in 9 of those 11 and in each of his past 4 consecutive games. At the Emirates his stats are even better. This season he has hit:
3,4,0,3,12,2,2,2,6,2,6,3,2,3,3,3,1 shots in his 17 matches. He’s hit 2 or more in 15/17 games, giving this section of the bet an 89% success rate.
Saka’s stats are equally as impressive. He’s hit: 5,2,3,4,3,1,7,5,2,1,4,3,3,2 shots at the Emirates, meaning his section of the bet has a 100% success ratio with him getting at least 1 in 14/14 home matches. I nearly included Saka to hit o1.5 shots along with Ødegaard at 10/11 (1.92) but instead went for the DC option and Saka to get just 1. Feel free to choose either as I think they’ll both land but I’ll go for the safety net of Arsenal not to lose option.
As I previously mentioned, Brighton have been showing signs of fatigue lately. Not just in their results and performances but in the amount of shots they are conceding. In their last 5 matches they’ve given away: 10,16,10,12,10 shots, which is way more than they usually do. They recently conceded 10 shots to Everton (who only attacked for half the game due to being 3-0 up) and to Wolves who they beat 6-0! If they’re conceding double figure shots at home to Everton and Wolves, you’d have to think they’ll concede way more away at Arsenal. I think they will and therefore I’m happy to hedge my best that Arsenal’s 2 most potent attacking weapons right now will get just 2 and 1 shots respectively to help Arsenal avoid defeat and to hopefully land the bet.
Bet:
🔘Arsenal double chance / Ødegaard o1.5 shots / Saka o0.5 shots - bet builder
📚Bet365
📈5/6 or 1.83
Written by Kristian Jones
