Published on May 8, 2023 at 9:00am
🏴Brighton v Everton🏴
Research/Write Up:
Everton’s performance last Monday away at Leicester was superb and I think they’ll take huge confidence from such a positive attacking display. I know Brighton will have more of the ball against Everton than Leicester but Everton have made it very clear how they’re going to try and get out of trouble - attack. They’ve been like this for weeks now but were really excellent against Leicester where they hit an incredible 23 shots.
As I mentioned, Everton have been playing a really attacking brand of football for a while. They’ve hit: 23,13,10,15,15,15,12,13,10,8,15,15 shots in their last 12, meaning this bet would have landed in 11/12 of those games and also gives them a shot average of 13.7 in those 12 games. As well as this, in their last 6 away matches they’ve hit: 23,10,15,12,10,8 shots meaning the only time this bet would have failed was at the Emirates back on 1st March. No shame in that.
Everton travel to Brighton, who are having an amazing season, but have played a lot of games in quick succession lately and are having to rotate a lot due to fatigue. Brighton played out a really entertaining game against Man United last Thursday where there was 38 shots in a game that was more like a basketball match. Brighton will only have 3 days rest, compared to Everton’s 6 and that’s bound to help Everton. Despite Brighton’s dominance, they do concede shots. They conceded 16 at home to Man U recently and in their home game before that (where they pumped Wolves 6-0) they still conceded 10 shots. In their last 10 games they’ve conceded: 16,10,12,10,8,9,14,7,11,12 shots, which is an average of 11 shots per game. It also means this bet would have landed in 6 of their last 7 and in 8/10. Failing ever so slightly short in the other 2.
What I like about Everton at the minute is not only their determination to attack in great numbers, but they also have some big lads in their team, meaning they got a lot of shots away from set pieces. Centre backs Keane and Tarkowski had 4 between then at Leicester. Just getting your head on the ball from a set piece counts as a shot, which I think will really work for us. Also, Everton just can’t stop conceding, meaning there’s a high chance they’ll be chasing the game or chasing to get the winner for large periods at Brighton, which should hopefully result in shots.
Bet:
🔘Everton o9.5 shots
📈50/51 or 1.98
📚Unibet/BetUK
Written by Kristian Jones
