Published on Apr 15, 2023 at 1:21pm
🏴Man City v Leicester🏴
It’s often hard to find value in Man City games - for obvious reasons - but I’ve hopefully found a nice angle here, which if the stats are to be trusted, should reap rewards.
It’s hardly surprising Man City have the lowest shots against average at home, considering their dominance and high possession stats. But since Pep changed the shape a couple of months back, Man City have become even more defensively resolute, conceding really low numbers of shots. In their last 6 home games, they’ve conceded just: 4,6,4,5,6,5 shots; that’s a mere average of just 5. Over the whole season, at home, Man City have given away: 4,6,4,5,6,5,10,9,3,2,10,4,8,5,12,2 shots at the Etihad. Meaning this section of the bet would have landed in 12/16 matches and in each of the last 6 straight games. I’m more than happy to hedge my bets on that success rate, especially as they host a Leicester side in disarray.
Leicester’s appointment of Dean Smith as manager until the end of the season hardly inspires! What’s more, he’s known for negative tactics so unless he suddenly decides to go all out attack, his appointment should help the bet. At Leicester, morale is at an all time low, made evident by Maddison’s worrying post match interview after their home loss to Bournemouth. A trip to the Etihad is the last thing they need. Leicester managed just 3 shots in their last away game at Palace! They are bound to be on the back foot for the vast majority of this game, probably having around 30% possession. I’ll be absolutely amazed if Leicester go to the Etihad and get 8 or more shots.
Despite all their home dominance and scoring form, Man City don’t actually get as many shots at home as you’d think. Mainly due to their high possession tactics of pulling teams apart, rather than shooting from range. Man City average 16.5 shots at the Etihad, hitting: 17,17,11,17,13,16,9,16,29,16,10,21,22,12,17,18 shots. Therefore, we can feel safe they’ll not get 24 or more to complete this section of the bet builder, considering they’ve only hit 24 or more in 1/16 games. You’d think that Leicester will park the bus, limiting Man City as much as possible. This should help both shot sections of the bet.
Finally, this match really should be a procession and surely will be a question of how many Man City get. For those who like extra caution in their bets, take out the Man City to win section for odds of 4/5 (1.8) but I’m happy to include the win win push this bet up to even money.
Bet:
🔘Man City win / Man City under 23.5 shots / Leicester under 7.5 shots
📚Bet365
📈1/1 or 2.0
Written by Kristian Jones
