Liverpool v Everton

Research/Write Up:

Once again I’m taking the early lunchtime kick off and once again I think that the bet365 bet builder is the way to go. Liverpool are big favourites for this match and rightly so. They’ve suffered just 1 defeat in 8 and at home they have a 100% record, winning 3-1,3-0,3-1. Everton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their opening 8 games and while they have improved of late, it would be an almighty shock if they went to Anfield and won. I think Liverpool will win this but I’m more than happy to take the safety net of Liverpool win or draw. Everton have an incredibly poor record in the derby, winning just 1 of the last 28 meetings between the sides. 

Despite Everton’s lowly league position, they have a really high xG. Their game average xG is 1.77 and they have the 4th highest season xG in the league with 14.92. My point is - they are creating chances and having shots - they just aren’t being clinical. That’s perfect data for Everton shots and Liverpool goal kicks as Everton put shots wide resulting in Liverpool goal kicks. 2 birds with 1 stone. Everton average 16.6 shots per game after getting: 25,23,18,8,16,15,9,19 shots this season. Away from home that average drops slightly to 14.1 after they hit: 18,16,9 shots so I think they should manage the 7+ needed for this bet. Especially as Liverpool concede an average of 11 shots per game at home after allowing 11,9,13 shots against this season. 

As I’ve mentioned, Everton are getting shots away, they also play quite direct and this is resulting in opponents getting a high number of goal kicks. This season Everton’s opponents have had: 11,18,12,5,7,11,8,7 goal kicks, which is an average of 9.88 per game. Away from home their opponents have had: 11,7,8 which is an average of 8.6 goal kicks so we can feel confident Liverpool will get just 4. Especially if Liverpool go ahead with Everton forced to chase the game, lump long balls in and shoot from range. Liverpool have had: 7,1,7,10 goal kicks at home, which is an average of 6.25. Apart from a freak stat at home to West Ham, where the Hammers had 11 shots but forced just 1 goal kick, Liverpool have been getting a regular flow of goal kicks. 

Finally, we look at Everton’s combative midfielder, Amadou Onana. He’s been ever present in Everton’s boiler room this season, starting all 8 matches and averaging 88 minutes per game. In what should be a feisty Merseyside derby, there should be a big battle in the middle, which will hopefully result in tackles galore. This season, Onana has made: 4,3,2,6,2,2,4,1, tackles, giving this section an 89% success rate, missing out by just 1 tackle way back on the opening day of the season. As you can see, he’s really starting to dominate that midfield more and more, winning 15 tackles in his last 4 games alone. Leaving no stone unturned, Everton average 20.2 tackles per game and you’d have to predict that Liverpool will have the lions share of possession. If Everton reach their season average of 20 tackles (and I think they will) we’d be pretty unlucky if Onana doesn’t get just 2 of them, like he usually does.

Recommended Bet:

Liverpool Win or draw / Onana o1.5 tackles / Liverpool o3.5 GKs / Everton o6.5 shots 

📈1/1 EVS or 2.00 

📚bet365