Luton v Spurs

🟠🔵Luton v Spurs⚪️🔵

I think the early kick off at Kenilworth road is going to be a lunchtime cracker and I’ve used bet365’s bet builder to carefully construct a bet I really like. In my opinion, I think that Spurs will have the majority of play and should take the lead - or at least not go behind. This should result in Luton chasing the game, which will hopefully result in plenty of Luton shots, long balls, Spurs goal kicks and Nakamba tackles. 2 or more would be Marvelous! 

Starting off with Spurs win or draw section. Spurs are unbeaten this season, winning 5 and drawing 2 of their 7 league games. They’ve actually scored 2 or more goals in every league game so far meaning Luton might have to score 3 to get the better of Postecoglou’s Spurs who have fully bought in to their new managers attacking, high-press philosophy. Luton, on the other hand, are really struggling. Apart from their recent win over fellow strugglers Everton, they’ve lost 5 and drawn 1 of their 7 games. At home they are winless, losing 1-2 to both West Ham and Burnley and drawing 1-1 against Wolves. No disrespect to any of those sides but spurs are a big step up and I’d be amazed if Luton are the team to inflict Spurs’s first loss of the season. 

Spurs will surely have the majority of the ball, which should mean Luton having to make a lot of tackles and this is where Marvelous Nakamba comes in. So far this season he has made: 5,6,6,6,2,3,3 tackles, covering every blade of grass in the midfield. He is averaging 4.4 tackles per game so he should get just 2 or more on Saturday. Spurs are seeing lots of the ball and have been tackled an average 20.5 times a game this season (15,24,22,27,17,22,17) whereas Luton are averaging 18.1 tackles per game. If Luton get anywhere near those numbers - and I think they will - we’d be pretty unfortunate if the leagues top tackler (31 in 7 games) doesn’t get just 2 of them. 

I do think Spurs will have way too much for Luton but that’s not to say the Hatters won’t make a fight of it. They’ve had: 18,9,20,7,16,11,9 shots this season, which is an average of 12.9 and at home that average jumps up to 18 after they managed: 18,20,16 in their 3 home fixtures despite not winning any of them. Spurs do concede shots, so far conceding: 12,13,7,16,14,11,22,11 meaning this section of the bet easily has a 100% prior success rate. 

Luton are a very direct team; they play a lot of long balls and that’s resulting in opposing teams having a really high number of goals kicks. So far this season, Luton have forced the opposition in to: 12,8,12,18,6,11,11,8 goal kicks, which is an incredibly high average of 10.75 goal kicks per game. In their 5 away games this season, Spurs have had: 12,9,10,6,5 goal kicks, which is an average of 8.4 and would mean this section of the bet would have landed in EVERY Luton game and in all but 1 of Spurs away matches all the way back on the opening day of the season. 

Recommend Bet:

Spurs Win or draw / Nakamba o1.5 tackles / Spurs o5.5 GKs / Luton o6.5 shots 

📈10/11 or 1.91

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